Cognitive illusions: Intriguing phenomena in thinking, judgment and memory 2nd ed.
London and New York: Routledge. Schacter DL March Insights from psychology and cognitive neuroscience" PDF. Archived from the original PDF on May 13, Sutherland S Tetlock PE Expert Political Judgment: how good is it? Princeton: Princeton University Press. Virine L, Trumper M Project Decisions: The Art and Science. Vienna, VA: Management Concepts. Cognitive biases.
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The tendency to avoid options for which the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown. The tendency to rely too heavily, or "anchor", on one trait or piece of information when making decisions usually the first piece of information acquired on that subject. Anthropocentric thinking.
The tendency to use human analogies as a basis for reasoning about other, less familiar, biological phenomena. Anthropomorphism or personification. The tendency to characterize animals, objects, and abstract concepts as possessing human-like traits, emotions, and intentions. The tendency of perception to be affected by recurring thoughts. Attribute substitution. Occurs when a judgment has to be made of a target attribute that is computationally complex, and instead a more easily calculated heuristic attribute is substituted.
This substitution is thought of as taking place in the automatic intuitive judgment system, rather than the more self-aware reflective system. The tendency to depend excessively on automated systems which can lead to erroneous automated information overriding correct decisions. Availability heuristic.
The tendency to overestimate the likelihood of events with greater "availability" in memory, which can be influenced by how recent the memories are or how unusual or emotionally charged they may be. A self-reinforcing process in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its increasing repetition in public discourse or "repeat something long enough and it will become true". The reaction to disconfirming evidence by strengthening one's previous beliefs.
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Continued influence effect. The tendency to do or believe things because many other people do or believe the same. Related to groupthink and herd behavior. Base rate fallacy or Base rate neglect. The tendency to ignore base rate information generic, general information and focus on specific information information only pertaining to a certain case. An effect where someone's evaluation of the logical strength of an argument is biased by the believability of the conclusion. A person who has performed a favor for someone is more likely to do another favor for that person than they would be if they had received a favor from that person.
The tendency to misinterpret statistical experiments involving conditional probabilities.
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- List of cognitive biases;
The tendency to see oneself as less biased than other people, or to be able to identify more cognitive biases in others than in oneself. Choice-supportive bias. The tendency to remember one's choices as better than they actually were. The tendency to overestimate the importance of small runs, streaks, or clusters in large samples of random data that is, seeing phantom patterns. The predisposition to behave more compassionately towards a small number of identifiable victims than to a large number of anonymous ones.
The tendency to search for, interpret, focus on and remember information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions. The tendency to test hypotheses exclusively through direct testing, instead of testing possible alternative hypotheses. The tendency to assume that specific conditions are more probable than a more general version of those same conditions. For example, subjects in one experiment perceived the probability of a woman being both a bank teller and a feminist as more likely than the probability of her being a bank teller. Conservatism belief revision. The tendency to revise one's belief insufficiently when presented with new evidence.
The tendency to believe previously learned misinformation even after it has been corrected. Misinformation can still influence inferences one generates after a correction has occurred. Backfire effect. The enhancement or reduction of a certain stimulus' perception when compared with a recently observed, contrasting object. The tendency to give an opinion that is more socially correct than one's true opinion, so as to avoid offending anyone.
When better-informed people find it extremely difficult to think about problems from the perspective of lesser-informed people. The predisposition to view the past favorably rosy retrospection and future negatively. Preferences for either option A or B change in favor of option B when option C is presented, which is completely dominated by option B inferior in all respects and partially dominated by option A.
When given a choice between several options, the tendency to favor the default one. The tendency to spend more money when it is denominated in small amounts e. The tendency to sell an asset that has accumulated in value and resist selling an asset that has declined in value. The tendency to view two options as more dissimilar when evaluating them simultaneously than when evaluating them separately.
Just as losses yield double the emotional impact of gains, dread yields double the emotional impact of savouring. Dunning—Kruger effect. The tendency for unskilled individuals to overestimate their own ability and the tendency for experts to underestimate their own ability. The neglect of the duration of an episode in determining its value. The tendency to underestimate the influence or strength of feelings, in either oneself or others.
End-of-history illusion. The age-independent belief that one will change less in the future than one has in the past.
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The tendency for people to demand much more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay to acquire it. The tendency to expect or predict more extreme outcomes than those outcomes that actually happen. Experimenter's or expectation bias. The tendency for experimenters to believe, certify, and publish data that agree with their expectations for the outcome of an experiment, and to disbelieve, discard, or downgrade the corresponding weightings for data that appear to conflict with those expectations.
The tendency to place too much importance on one aspect of an event. Forer effect or Barnum effect. The observation that individuals will give high accuracy ratings to descriptions of their personality that supposedly are tailored specifically for them, but are in fact vague and general enough to apply to a wide range of people. This effect can provide a partial explanation for the widespread acceptance of some beliefs and practices, such as astrology, fortune telling, graphology, and some types of personality tests.
In human—robot interaction , the tendency of people to make systematic errors when interacting with a robot. People may base their expectations and perceptions of a robot on its appearance form and attribute functions which do not necessarily mirror the true functions of the robot. Framing effect. Drawing different conclusions from the same information, depending on how that information is presented. The illusion in which a word, a name, or other thing that has recently come to one's attention suddenly seems to appear with improbable frequency shortly afterwards not to be confused with the recency illusion or selection bias.
Limits a person to using an object only in the way it is traditionally used. The tendency to think that future probabilities are altered by past events, when in reality they are unchanged. The fallacy arises from an erroneous conceptualization of the law of large numbers. For example, "I've flipped heads with this coin five times consecutively, so the chance of tails coming out on the sixth flip is much greater than heads. The psychological phenomenon that occurs within a group of people in which the desire for harmony or conformity in the group results in an irrational or dysfunctional decision-making outcome.
Group members try to minimize conflict and reach a consensus decision without critical evaluation of alternative viewpoints by actively suppressing dissenting viewpoints, and by isolating themselves from outside influences. Based on a specific level of task difficulty, the confidence in judgments is too conservative and not extreme enough.
Sometimes called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect, the tendency to see past events as being predictable  at the time those events happened. Hostile attribution bias. The "hostile attribution bias" is the tendency to interpret others' behaviors as having hostile intent, even when the behavior is ambiguous or benign.
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